The Humiliation of William Ruto

#financebill2024 #kenya #imf

As the days of the dictator Daniel arap Moi came to end in 2002, Kenyans turned a hiphop track into an anthem of defiance.

'I am unbwogable’: No one can make me afraid.

The sentiment brought an end to a government founded on intimidation and skyrocketed Mwai Kibaki into the presidency.

22 years later, angry Kenyans sung the same song as they marched towards parliament. Hours later the building was in flames, many protesters were injured or worse, and Kenya’s political elite had fled into underground tunnels.

The man at the heart of the storm was William Ruto. In 2022 he became president of Kenya with 50% of the vote. Two years later he has become one of the most controversial politicians in Kenya’s history. 

And yet, as his ratings in Kenya have plummeted, he has become increasingly popular in the West. Now even his Americans allies mumble against him, embarrassed by the outrage on the streets of Nairobi. This is the story of the humiliation of William Ruto.

Dangerous Debts

Like many African countries Kenya has a problem. It is in debt. Presidents only consider their term in office. They leave their successors to worry about interest payments. In 2024, 32% of Kenya’s government revenue was used to cover interest payments alone.

During his presidential campaign, Ruto tapped into anger over foreign debt. He especially targeted Chinese. ‘We will deport Chinese street vendors taking Kenyan jobs’ he told supporters. Ruto was good at working out what the man on the street was worried about. Then promising to meet that need.

His sweet-sounding promises won him the election in 2022. Many Kenyans felt he was a man of the people. A humble chicken seller who had risen to president. A godly Christian and humble hustler. His flag displayed a farmer’s wheelbarrow.

Ruto had two big focuses as president. Firstly, he tried to move Kenya closer to the West and away from China. Secondly, he wanted to encourage economic growth by privatizing businesses. Africa needed investment, not aid.

His government project, the Hustler Fund, aimed to provide Kenyans with easy loans to start small businesses. ‘I'm also struggling and hustling’ he told journalists in 2023, ‘It is a tough job’. Ruto had to take a new Chinese loan to pay interest on an IMF debt. The same year he attracted protests as he introduced a new housing tax.

Hello America

His big smile and willingness to promise everything to everyone made him many friends in Europe and America. When America worried about the situation in Haiti, Ruto volunteered Kenya’s police to sort out the problem. In Kenya there was a mixed reaction. People didn’t know what Haiti had to do with Kenya. They didn’t want to feel like America’s puppy. In response, Ruto played the religion card. The First Lady promised to pray for the police deployed to Haiti.

By 2024 Ruto had established himself as a well-liked member of the international elite. He exchanged jokes with President Kagame at an international event. Benny Hinn prayed for him. Then the crowning moment of Ruto’s diplomacy arrived. A visit to America to meet Biden in person and sit in the White House chair. Kenya had become America’s new non-NATO ally in Africa.

Back in Kenya the headlines were dominated by the cost of Ruto’s private jet. Normally it would cost $1.5 million to hire the plane but Ruto assured Kenyan’s the plane had been offered at a lower price by ‘some friends.’ In any case, many people believed investing a little money in a trip to America, could return 100 times in foreign investment to Kenya.

Finance Bill 2024

Ruto’s big headline decisions in Haiti and America were not popular in Kenya. But people tolerated them, believing they would translate into benefits for the country.

And then the 2024 Finance Bill was announced. Now Kenyan’s heard instead of tax relief, Ruto’s strange decisions had translated into higher taxes across the board. Kenya’s national debt is 68% of GDP whilst the IMF recommends no higher than 55%. Following the IMF guidance Ruto proposed a Finance Bill that would raise almost $3 billion in additional taxes.

Unlike the housing tax in 2023, the new taxes in 2024 targeted Kenya’s poorest. Bread, vegetable oil and sugar would be taxed. So too would sanitary pads and diapers. Suddenly Ruto was less of a fellow hustler and more like a predatory landlord.

The government agreed to a series of amendments which removed the bread tax altogether. But the damage had been done. Protests erupted in Nairobi. Ruto’s allies tried to argue the protesters were the ones who were out of touch. They were urban youth who take uber rides and eat KFC. But the government seriously underestimated the level of popular resentment.

A minority of Kenyans believe the issue is not primarily Ruto but his advisors. The communications team is meant to tap into popular feeling and ensure the president is aware of the national mood. Statehouse bloggers like Hussein Mohamed and Dennis Itumbi backed Ruto’s hard line without question.

Crisis Point

And so, the situation continued escalating with Ruto staking his presidency on passing the amended finance bill. His half-hearted calls for dialogue have not been taken seriously. Protestors carried images of Ruto as a western puppet controlled by the IMF.  Others used Ruto’s Christianity against him. Mene mene tekel upharsin was written on a man’s shirt, echoing God’s judgement against a biblical king.

And the idea that demonstrators were a privileged elite was proven wrong. Protests erupted across Kenya. The fury at Ruto’s refusal to engage eventually translated into an unprecedented march on parliament where snipers ended several protesters before they breached the compound and sacked the building.

The situation was an embarrassment for Ruto who worked so hard to present himself as a reliable, respectable ally to the West. In response to the chaos, the US withdrew its ambassador. European embassies issued a joint statement condemning the use of force against peaceful protestors. The opposition withdrew their support for the amended finance bill.

In a state address Ruto promised never again would parliament be sacked and burnt. The state had mobilized all resources. He decried criminals disguised as protestors and offered no compromise on the bill. ‘Speak for the people, not at them’ admonished a former Kenyan President. Raila Odinga, Ruto’s election rival in 2022, also lamented the violence. ‘Today our country is paying a steep price for obstinacy… Matters that should have resolved through dialogue and humility have degenerated into developments that have never been witnessed in the 61 years of our country.’

Western media coverage has been critical of Ruto. Secret arrests and internet blackouts have led protestors to brand Ruto a dictator. But there is no suggestion NATO will intervene in the situation, as they did in Libya when another African government fired on protestors.

Meanwhile in the offices of the IMF, Kenya’s debt keeps growing.

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